Dare to talk about the future

Down this line of incremental progress towards capable AI, we find ourselves doubting. Can it really reason? Can it do meaningful work? Is this just another scam (all ventures are fractionally scammy)? You don’t want to look the fool, exclaiming the end times. Better to just keep your opinions to yourself, lest you are associated with the demented and mad. But this is a disservice to your fellow man, the layman who isn’t in the informational trenches like you are. They expect you to be honest, and not cowardly hide your true predictions.

With each model release, you might grow some courage. The most courageous (AI 2027) made their predictions clear when it was unpopular. A year ago their aggressive timelines were met with derision. Now it’s almost required for you to be concerned to be taken seriously. Seeing Bernie Sanders drink the nectar of AI doomerism is enough to draw tears. Forecasters are predicting that the next few years will be the most consequential time of our species.

But what if they’re wrong? And you’re wrong? It was too good to be true. Of course it is, of all the people, all the generations born, you find yourself in the middle of the stage as the final act is drawn? Show a modest droplet of humility, accept your insignificant place in history with the rest of us. Besides, that future would have no work for you, why invite the thought?

The nihilist in you would welcome the devil, just to feel something. Your better angels attempt to convince you that the future is bright. The doomer in you fears that hell wasn’t real, but will be. But the part you fear, is the thought that you’ll see it through and feel worse. The end of capitalism; a scene so far-out you can’t even imagine it, will pass by. Labour will return to history, something that you thought was a law of nature disappears overnight. The endless appetite of humans sated. Everyone finally free from the struggle.

The horror of being circumstantially inclined to happiness, and yet devoid of it.